The recent performance of Ethereum has been rather modest, trading mostly sideways this week with a slight gain of just 1.3%, currently hovering around $4,430. Even on a month-to-month basis, the uptick is a modest 2.7%. However, this apparent stagnation might conceal a more profound narrative in the market.
Despite the lackluster price movements, there are signs of accumulating interest among traders and institutions alike. This undercurrent of activity may suggest that larger movements could be on the horizon.
Whales and Short-Term Holders Quietly Accumulate
A significant shift is evident among Ethereum whales, with on-chain data revealing that these large holders have collectively added nearly 870,000 ETH in just the last 24 hours. Their combined holdings have grown from 99.34 million to an impressive 100.21 million ETH.
At the current price of approximately $4,440, this accumulation totals nearly $4 billion, marking one of the most substantial single-day inflows by whales in recent weeks. Typically, such moves indicate that these deep-pocketed investors are gearing up for a breakout, suggesting bullish sentiment rather than profit-taking after a rally.
Simultaneously, smaller but active trader cohorts are also increasing their positions. Insights from Glassnode’s HODL Waves highlight this trend, indicating that short-term holders have expanded significantly. The 24-hour holding group has surged from 0.34% to 0.87% since October 4, and the group holding for 1–3 months has increased from 11.57% to 12.36% week-on-week.
The uptick in shorter-term holdings during a relatively calm price phase suggests that a growing number of traders are re-engaging with the market. This influx can enhance liquidity and momentum during early accumulation stages, serving to strengthen the bullish narrative surrounding Ethereum.
The combination of whale inflows and increasing short-term holdings indicates that the current state of calm might be concealing preparations for significant price movements in the near future.
Ethereum Price Chart Structure Supports the Accumulation Narrative
Ethereum’s chart structure reinforces this optimistic outlook. The asset is currently trading between two pivotal Fibonacci levels—$4,400 and $4,620—while exhibiting an ascending triangle formation. This particular pattern is characterized by the price making higher lows while facing flat resistance, often a precursor to a breakout.
Additionally, a hidden bullish divergence has manifested on the daily chart between August 25 and October 9. This phenomenon occurs when the price forms higher lows, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI)—a tool that gauges market momentum—records lower lows. Such divergences often signal a potential continuation of an upward trend.
Typically, hidden bullish divergence appears during corrective phases within a broader uptrend, suggesting that the prevailing upward momentum is likely to persist. This specific signal hints at weakening selling pressure, which could pave the way for a resumption of the bullish trend for Ethereum.
If Ethereum can decisively close above $4,620, it may trigger a rally towards $4,870 and potentially $5,130, marking the confirmation of a breakout. Conversely, a drop below $4,400 could pave the way for a pullback towards $4,240 or even $4,070, which would invalidate the short-term bullish outlook.
At this juncture, both whale activity and trends among short-term traders suggest a singular focus: the market’s ability to break through and maintain a position above $4,620, which could be critical in commencing the next significant upward movement in Ethereum’s price.
