Jakarta, Pintu News – The crypto industry has shown promising momentum since early 2026. However, according to analysts from Bitwise Asset Management, three major checkpoints must be navigated before the market can potentially reach a new all-time high (ATH) once again.
The rally in total market capitalization and asset prices, particularly for Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), is heavily influenced by macroeconomic conditions, regulatory developments, and the overall state of global capital markets. This analysis serves as a reminder to both investors and market participants that while there is significant growth potential, it remains highly conditional on various external factors.
1. Market Stability After a Major Liquidation Event
Bitwise emphasizes that the first checkpoint entails clear market stability following a significant liquidation event that impacted the industry in late 2025. The notable crash on October 10, 2025, resulted in over US$19 billion worth of liquidation of downside contracts in just one day, raising concerns that hedge funds or large market makers might exit the market altogether.
Fortunately, Bitwise reports that these fears have largely diminished, as no major entities faced operational halts post-crash. The market’s ability to absorb the shock from such a significant liquidation without subsequent disruption suggests that the crypto sector is maturing, demonstrating an increased capacity to handle extreme volatility.
2. Crypto Market Structure Bill Passage in the US
The second checkpoint relates to the passage of essential legislation within the United States, specifically the CLARITY Act, which is currently being discussed in Congress and is anticipated to clear the Senate by mid-January 2026. Bitwise posits that successful enactment of this bill will lay a firmer legal foundation for the cryptocurrency sector in the US.
This legislation is expected to encapsulate the core tenets of the crypto industry, enhancing legal certainty for large institutional investors. A lack of a definitive legal framework could stifle long-term growth prospects due to the inherent risks of abrupt policy shifts.
3. Stable Public Equity Market Conditions
According to Bitwise, a stable public equity market is crucial for the crypto world. Although cryptocurrencies don’t have a high correlation with the stock market, significant disruptions in equity markets—like a drop of more than 20% in global indices such as the S&P 500—can adversely affect all risky assets, including cryptocurrencies.
A resilient stock market or, at the very least, the absence of substantial corrections fosters a risk-on sentiment among investors, essential for supporting a resurgence in digital asset prices. If the positive momentum witnessed in early 2026 continues unimpeded by major macroeconomic disruptions, the crypto market could flourish.
4. Positive Regulatory Momentum and Institutional Adoption
Beyond legislative developments in the US, a more supportive regulatory environment across various global jurisdictions is another significant factor influencing the rise in crypto asset prices. Bitwise highlights the increasing embrace of cryptocurrencies by traditional financial institutions and the practical applications of blockchain technology, which collectively bolster long-term market growth prospects.
The growing availability of crypto-affiliated investment products, including various ETFs centered around Bitcoin and Ethereum, indicates a surge in institutional interest. This interest is frequently accompanied by significant capital inflows, contributing positively to market momentum and aiding in surpassing previous price thresholds.
5. Controlled Macro Sentiment & Risks
The final checkpoint entails maintaining conducive overall macro market sentiment. This encompasses manageable factors such as global inflation rates, stable central bank policies, and optimistic global economic forecasts. Though Bitwise may not expressly mention interest rate adjustments, many analysts suggest that a blend of dovish fiscal and monetary strategies might encourage investment into riskier assets like cryptocurrencies.
Robust positive sentiment is crucial for luring investor capital back into the cryptocurrency sphere, particularly towards leading assets such as BTC and ETH, thereby uplifting the likelihood of achieving higher price levels throughout the remainder of 2026.
