January’s Volatility in Bitcoin: Analyzing Recent Trends and Signals
January has shown a tumultuous start for Bitcoin (BTC), marked by a near 2.5% drop to around $92,663 within a 24-hour window. Much of this instability arises from heightened geopolitical tensions, especially following President Trump’s recent tariff announcements that have stirred economic uncertainty between the US and the EU. Amidst this backdrop, analysts are highlighting emerging bear market signals that may shape Bitcoin’s trajectory into 2026.
Bearish Kumo Twist Appears on Bitcoin Chart
In a recent analysis shared on X (formerly Twitter), the analyst known as Titan of Crypto pointed out a significant "Kumo twist" on Bitcoin’s weekly chart. This phenomenon occurs when the two leading spans of the Ichimoku Cloud—Senkou Span A and Senkou Span B—intersect, resulting in a shift in the future cloud’s direction. The current twist is characterized as bearish, suggesting a potential transition from bullish to bearish market conditions.
Historically, Kumo twists have often preceded significant market corrections. Notably, in previous cycles, Bitcoin has suffered drawdowns ranging from 67% to 70% following similar weekly shifts. Titan succinctly summarized, “Historically, when the weekly Kumo turned bearish, BTC entered a bear market phase. This doesn’t imply an immediate drop but reveals a change in the market’s structure and trend dynamics."
Bitcoin Struggles Below Key Barriers
Compounding the bearish sentiment, Bitcoin’s price is trading under its 365-day moving average, which stands at approximately $101,000. During the tumultuous 2022 bear market, this level was pivotal, acting as a resistance point that curtailed recovery attempts.
Analysts from Coin Bureau elucidate that this positioning signals ongoing bearish market conditions. Additional analysis using the Gaussian Channel on a five-day chart shows that Bitcoin has slipped below the channel’s median level. Historical trends suggest that such failures to retest this median have marked the onset of more aggressive bear market phases.
Crypto analyst Raven noted the importance of the median level, suggesting that the market could aim for a retest around $103,000 or slightly higher. However, there’s caution in this bullish outlook: “Everything should be considered just a dead cat bounce,” the analyst warned, highlighting the current fragility of the market.
Historical Drawdown Patterns Suggest More Declines
Delving into Bitcoin’s price history reveals a clear pattern of steep declines following cycle peaks. For instance, after reaching its apex in 2013, Bitcoin witnessed a staggering 75.9% fall. Subsequent peaks in 2017 and 2021 were similarly marked by declines of 81.2% and about 74%, respectively.
Currently, Bitcoin’s correction post-peak has been relatively mild, with losses hovering just above 30%. This modest downturn could imply that the current cycle has plenty of room for further declines as the year progresses.
Market Cycle Indicator Signals Bitcoin Bear Phase Still Developing
Beyond price action, broader market indicators paint a concerning picture for Bitcoin’s short-term future. The Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator, which monitors overarching market phases, shows that bearish conditions were established back in October 2025, yet it has not yet plunged into an extreme bear phase.
As one analyst remarked, “By this metric, BTC is in bear market territory.” Historical cycles often extend into deeper dips, suggesting that lower price levels could still be on the horizon. The cautionary tone reflects an ongoing awareness of potential market vulnerabilities.
Exchange Inflows Reveal Distribution by Major Holders
On-chain data adds another layer to the analysis, indicating a notable increase in Bitcoin inflows to exchanges, predominantly from mid- to large-sized holders in the 10–100 BTC and 100–1,000 BTC bands. Such inflows typically signal a rise in distribution rather than long-term accumulation, as significant market players position themselves for potential sell-offs.
This behavior is seen as more indicative of strategic decisions rather than random movements, differentiating it from retail trades. An analyst highlighted the importance of monitoring these larger inflows, suggesting that the market is entering a more fragile phase, with growing distribution risks adding to the bearish narrative.
Overall, the current landscape for Bitcoin is fraught with uncertainty. Multiple indicators point to potential bearish conditions across several fronts—technical, historical, and on-chain—each contributing to an environment ripe for further volatility. As the market reacts to ongoing geopolitical dynamics and internal signals, the future of Bitcoin remains a subject of intense scrutiny and speculation.
