The GAIN AI Act: Implications for Chip Manufacturers and Crypto Miners
On October 9, 2025, the US Senate passed the controversial Guaranteeing Access and Innovation for National Artificial Intelligence (GAIN AI) Act as part of the annual defense spending bill. The legislation, which passed with a significant 77-20 vote, mandates that American chip manufacturers prioritize sales of their most advanced processors to domestic customers before exporting them, particularly to nations like China that raise national security concerns.
Understanding the GAIN AI Act
The GAIN AI Act fundamentally alters the sales landscape for prominent chip manufacturers, such as Nvidia and AMD. Under this new regulatory framework, these companies must prioritize fulfilling domestic orders for high-performance processors. Specifically, processors with a performance score of 2,400 or higher require special approval for export. Furthermore, processors scoring 4,800 or above—including Nvidia’s increasingly popular H100 and B300 models—face complete bans on overseas sales.
The law introduces stringent requirements for companies looking to export these advanced chips. They must demonstrate that American customers had the first opportunity to purchase, that all domestic orders have been fulfilled, that foreign buyers are not receiving better prices, and that export activities won’t adversely affect domestic manufacturing capacity. Senator Elizabeth Warren, a co-sponsor of the bill, emphasized its importance by stating that American small businesses and startups should not have to compete against China’s tech giants for the latest AI chips.
Industry Pushback and White House Concerns
The legislation has elicited significant backlash from the tech industry, with Nvidia being one of its most vocal opponents. The company has denounced the GAIN Act, labeling it as “doomer science fiction” and claiming it addresses an issue that does not exist. Nvidia argues that its international sales actually benefit American businesses by expanding market opportunities. In fiscal 2024, the United States accounted for nearly half of Nvidia’s revenue, with China contributing only about 13%.
Additionally, the White House has expressed reservations. David Sacks, the administration’s lead advisor on AI and crypto, has encouraged lawmakers to consider removing the GAIN Act from the defense budget, emphasizing a preference for deregulation and expanded tech exports rather than imposing restrictions.
Implications for Crypto Miners
While the GAIN Act directly addresses sales for AI and high-performance computing chips, unexpected consequences could ripple through the crypto mining industry. The legislation does not explicitly mention cryptocurrency mining, yet it may create supply chain challenges for miners reliant on powerful graphics processing units (GPUs) to verify blockchain transactions.
The prioritization of domestic orders could lead to prolonged lead times and inflated costs for global mining operations. Any export restrictions could tighten the availability of hardware for international miners, and the Congressional approval processes for high-end processor exports might introduce additional licensing delays. Such bottlenecks would likely drive up costs and reduce profit margins for miners, who are already navigating a tumultuous market.
Recent trade enforcement actions have already created hurdles for US mining companies, as evidenced by CleanSpark’s $185 million customs claims related to imported equipment. The GAIN Act could compound these challenges, tightening the supply chain further and exacerbating procurement difficulties for miners.
The Legislative Path Forward
Although the GAIN Act has passed in the Senate, it is not yet law. The House of Representatives previously approved its version of the defense bill in September, which notably lacked the chip prioritization provision. Both chambers must now negotiate a revised format through a conference committee, making it possible that the final legislation may differ significantly from what the Senate approved.
The outcome depends on various influences, such as the preferences of House Republicans, White House pressures to lift restrictions, and lobbying efforts from chip manufacturers. Advocates of the legislation argue that securing domestic AI infrastructure is critical in a competitive global landscape. Brad Carson, President of Americans for Responsible Innovation, points out that advanced chips are in short supply, meaning that every chip sold abroad could impact the US’s ability to invest in research and development.
Conversely, critics argue that such export limitations may inadvertently weaken American companies’ global standing while hurting the very domestic customers the law aims to support. They raise concerns that reduced foreign sales revenue could diminish funds available for the advancement of next-generation chips.
Timing and Market Context
The GAIN AI Act emerges at a time when the semiconductor industry is already grappling with numerous challenges, including escalating trade tensions between the US and China. Ongoing tariffs and export restrictions complicate international chip sales, leaving manufacturers to navigate a fraught market. Furthermore, the demand for high-performance processors remains robust across diverse sectors—ranging from AI and gaming to data centers and cryptocurrency mining—heightening competition for limited chip supplies.
Despite this growing demand, recent data indicates a slowdown in crypto mining activity compared to previous years. With a decrease in Bitcoin mining difficulty noted in early 2025, US-based mining companies have begun reducing equipment orders. This cooling period may offer some insulation against the impacts of any forthcoming chip restrictions.
The Dynamics of Legislation and Industry Impact
As the GAIN Act unfolds, it represents a pivotal shift in how America approaches the regulation of strategic technology exports. For crypto miners, while immediate threats may not be apparent, the potential for supply chain disruptions looms. If the Act is enacted, manufacturers may have no choice but to reprioritize shipments to meet domestic demands, thereby slowing down international availability.
Miners are advised to closely monitor developments in Congress and plan for contingencies. Strategies to mitigate potential hardware shortages could focus on diversifying suppliers and securing larger inventories to cushion against upcoming uncertainties. With legislative negotiations expected to finalize before the year’s end, clarity about the future landscape for chip manufacturing and crypto mining may soon emerge.
