Bitcoin’s Failed Recovery Attempt
Bitcoin’s most recent price surge may appear compelling at first glance, but the underlying structure suggests this is more of a "fakeout" than a genuine recovery. After breaking through some short-term resistance and recovering minor moving averages, Bitcoin encountered substantial technical resistance created by the 100 and 200 EMA clusters, causing it to stall almost immediately. This stalling is especially concerning when compared to assets like Shiba Inu and XRP, which have yet to attempt breaking through significant resistance levels. The critical tests for these coins are still looming on the horizon.
At pivotal points of a market, true trend reversals usually either push through or take a quick pause before continuing their climb. Unfortunately, Bitcoin did neither. Instead, it printed a sharp impulsive move, which was soon followed by shallow continuation and hesitation. Although trading volumes picked up after the initial move, they quickly died down, indicating that this was not sustained spot accumulation but rather typical short-covering—an attempt to lure in late longs. Essentially, the market tested consumer psychology concerning price increases, with disconcerting results.
Technical Analysis and the Broader Market Context
Bitcoin exists in a broader corrective phase, and the 200 EMA is currently rolling over, a sign that the long-term trend is weakening. This reality is more significant than any minor short-term price increase. Any breakout attempts must be met with skepticism as long as Bitcoin remains beneath critical resistance levels. The current price movement can best be described as a relief rally occurring within a more extensive downtrend, rather than the onset of a renewed bullish phase.
Momentum indicators support this caution. Although the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved into the upper-neutral range, it hasn’t reached levels typically associated with significant trend reversals. Higher time frames indicate that Bitcoin is merely undergoing a mechanical bounce following an oversold condition, not a genuine bullish divergence. While this behavior might provide temporary warmth to the market, it poses risks for traders who may mistakenly believe they are witnessing a bottoming event.
Buyers are active enough to prevent an outright breakdown, but they lack the confidence to push prices through critical resistance. This balance often leads to choppy conditions, generating false signals and frustration among traders.
Shiba Inu’s Comeback
Unlike Bitcoin, Shiba Inu’s price movement appears to be edging toward a turning point. SHIB is tracking back toward its 100-day exponential moving average (EMA), marking its third attempt in a relatively short span after months of persistent downward pressure and repeated failures at crucial resistance. This sequence is crucial since significant resistance levels are seldom surmounted on the first try; instead, they often weaken with repeated tests.
After a protracted decline, Shiba Inu has demonstrated stabilization. It hasn’t collapsed again but has instead cooled off into a shallow consolidation phase after printing a local bottom. This indicates a significant waning of selling pressure. Presently, the asset is slightly compressing below the 100 EMA while holding above shorter-term moving averages, often seen as a precursor to directional moves.
The first two breakout attempts were hampered by poor follow-through, but the current market structure appears more organized. Volatility is diminishing, and buyers are stepping in more proactively than before, leading to shorter pullbacks. Should Shiba Inu manage to reclaim the 100 EMA and hold above it, even briefly, the most recent lower-high structure will be invalidated, paving the way for potential rotations toward higher resistance levels.
XRP’s Triple Formation
The current behavior of XRP can be encapsulated in a series of three local price waves forming within a larger bearish framework. This structure sets the stage for diminished expectations of a clean recovery as each wave develops within a downward-sloping channel and under declining moving averages. Instead of aggressively rushing upward, the market has been correcting and rolling over.
The price lost the 100 EMA during the initial wave, indicating early breakdowns from support levels, which established a bearish tone. Subsequent attempts to climb have been lackluster, lacking volume and decisive follow-through. Although XRP displayed some recovery, it did so at a lower high, suggesting dwindling bullish interest.
XRP currently finds itself in a third local wave, making an effort to establish a base after a prolonged decline, yet encountering significant overhead resistance. Each bounce faces pressure from the 50 and 100 EMAs, which remain above the price and slope downward. Thus, this third wave appears corrective, situated within a broader bearish environment rather than heralding a new bullish impulse.
For XRP to truly pivot towards recovery, it must break out of the descending channel and reclaim essential moving averages to invalidate its current wave structure. However, ongoing signs of pessimism have resulted in repeated waves of weaker recoveries, creating a challenging landscape for any potential turnaround.
